Last Week in Review – July 10, 2023 – from Stephen Colavito
Stocks closed lower last week in a holiday-shortened week as investors wait for the release of second-quarter earnings reports. Growth stocks held up modestly better than value shares.
Tesla, which has a heavy weighting in the Nasdaq Composite and growth indices, provided a boost after reporting better-than-expected sales, as did its smaller electric vehicle rival, Rivian. Conversely, disappointing trial results for AstraZeneca’s new lung cancer drug weighed on the healthcare sector. Markets closed early Monday and were shuttered Tuesday during the Independence Day holiday.
The main factor weighing sentiment during the week appeared to be Wednesday’s release of the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting minutes. The minutes revealed that, while the decision not to raise rates in June was unanimous, some members would have preferred another increase. Expectations that rates would remain “higher for longer” were deepened Thursday after Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, one of those who argued for a rate hike in June, told a Central Bank Research Association gathering that she anticipated two more rate increases in the remainder of the year. In response, markets began pricing in a roughly 44% chance of two or even three quarter-point hikes by December, according to the CME Fed Watch Tool.
That probability fell back to end Friday at around 36%, however, seemingly in response to data indicating a slowdown in the job market. The Labor Department reported that employers added 209,000 nonfarm jobs in June, modestly below expectations and the lowest number since December 2020. The previous two months’ gains were also revised lower by 110,000 jobs. The unemployment rate edged down from 3.7% in May to 3.6% in June. The report also revealed that the number of people employed part-time for economic reasons jumped by roughly 11% in June, “partially reflecting an increase in the number of persons whose hours were cut due to slack work or business conditions.”
US - MARKETS & ECONOMY
However, the week also showed that factory and service workers faced different job markets. The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM’s) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released Monday, seemed to confirm a renewed slowdown in job growth, indicating a contraction in hiring trends in the sector for the first time since March. The Institute’s gauge of services employment painted the opposite picture, however, jumping to its highest level (53.1, with numbers above 50 indicating expansion) since February. The ISM’s overall Services PMI also hit its highest level (53.9) since February, well above estimates.
US– EQUITYMARKETPERFORMANCE
US YIELDS & BONDS
The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note fluctuated following the release of Friday’s payroll report but closed higher for the week and firmly above 4% for the first time in eight months. (Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.) Munis held up better, helped by the reinvestment of July coupon payments and no new supply reaching the market. Credit-sensitive corporate bond markets were also quiet over the holiday-shortened week.
US TREASURY MARKETS – CURRENT RATE AND WEEKLY CHANGE
3 Mth +0.06 bps to 5.34%
2-yr: +0.05 bps to 4.95%
5-yr: +0.20 bps to 4.36%
10-yr: +0.24 bps to 4.06%
30-yr: +0.19 bps to 4.05%
INTERESTING NEWS OVERSEAS
In local currency terms, the pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index fell 3.09% on fears that central banks might need to keep tightening monetary policy. Investors were also disappointed by a lack of specific measures to bolster the Chinese economy despite more pledges of support from government officials. Major stock indexes declined. Germany’s DAX lost 3.37%, France’s CAC 40 Index slid 3.89%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB gave up 1.60%. The UK’s FTSE 100 Index dropped 3.65%.
European government bond yields ticked higher. The yield on the benchmark German 10-year bond ended above 2.6%. French and Italian bond yields also rose. In the UK, yields rose to their highest levels since mid-2008.
German data for industrial production, factory orders, and exports pointed to continuing economic weakness in the second quarter. Output in May fell 0.2% versus April, disappointing consensus expectations that had called for industrial production to come in flat. New orders surged 6.4% on increased demand for ships, spacecraft, and military vehicles in May. However, on a three-month basis, this metric was still down 6.1% sequentially. Exports continued to be volatile, unexpectedly shrinking 0.1% month over month. Imports increased by 1.7% in May.
Consumer inflation expectations for the next 12 months moderated further in May, according to the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) monthly survey. Survey participants see inflation at 3.9% annually, down from 4.1% in April.
ECB President Christine Lagarde stuck to her hawkish stance, saying in an interview with a French regional newspaper that policymakers “still have work to do” to reduce inflation projected to be above the 2% target in 2024 and 2025.
Japan’s stock markets fell over the week, with the Nikkei 225 Index registering a 2.4% loss and the broader TOPIX Index down 1.5%. Both indexes retreated from 33-year highs as investors locked in profits, particularly in strongly performing technology stocks. The sentiment was dampened by increased anticipation that the U.S. Federal Reserve would raise interest rates in the second half of the year. The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ’s) ultra-accommodative monetary policy and historic yen weakness, which continued to boost Japan’s export-oriented firms, cushioned losses.
The yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) rose to 0.44% from 0.39% at the end of the previous week. Speculation that the BoJ could adjust its policy of yield curve control at its July meeting, possibly allowing JGB yields to fluctuate beyond the current range of around plus and minus 0.5 percentage points from zero, exerted some upward pressure on domestic yields. However, according to the Nikkei newspaper, BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said the central bank will maintain its yield curve policy. While the policy has side effects, such as the impact on market functioning, the BoJ must continue to support the economy, Uchida added.
Lastly, Chinese equities retreated as the latest economic data raised concerns about the country’s sputtering post-pandemic recovery. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell 0.17%, while the blue-chip CSI 300 lost 0.44%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index plunged 2.91%. The private Caixin/S&P Global survey of manufacturing activity eased to 50.5 in June from May’s 50.9 as the expansion of manufacturing output and new orders softened. Index readings above 50 indicate growth from the previous month, while those under 50 denote contraction.
THE WEEK AHEAD
In the US, the primary focus will be on the CPI figures. The headline annual inflation is projected to decline to 3.1% in June from 4% in the previous month, while the core index may fall to 5% from 5.3%. Investors will also closely watch speeches by several Fed officials, hoping to gain insights into the future trajectory of monetary policy. Other economic indicators to watch include producer and foreign trade prices, the preliminary estimate of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and the government's monthly budget numbers for June. Finally, the second-quarter earnings season will start, with reports from prominent financial institutions such as Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo, along with Delta Air Lines, PepsiCo, BlackRock, and UnitedHealth Group.
Stephen Colavito
Chief Investment Officer
San Blas Securities
This message is informational and should not be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell securities or other financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. San Blas Advisory is a registered investment adviser. More information about the firm can be found in its Form ADV Part 2, available upon request.